Today is March 15, 2006

Tonight we are going to refer back to a previous commentary, January 25, 2006, while we discuss possible targets during this sell signal. On January 25th, we mentioned a potential target of 1400 on the S&P 500, 770-780 on the Russell 2000, 2450-2500 on the NASDAQ Composite, and 46 for QQQQ. Generally speaking, we still like these target areas, expect for QQQQ, which has underperfomed the other indices and will possibly not hit 46 this buy signal. If it does, then the other targets could end up higher.

The 1400 area seemed like a great target for the S&P 500 back in January, but as more and more analysts are suggesting a 1400 top, we unfortunately have to lower our expectations for the S&P 500. Enough people believe that 1400 will be the top in the S&P 500 that CNBC used the word "the 1400 club" today. This is not a bullish sign. Not only will people be selling going into this number, but rarely are market pundits right. Especially when so many believe the same thing! We expect the S&P 500 to land in the 1380 area now. Still 77 points from today's close, or just under 6% from here. The index did break above the 1300 resistance we have talked about in many commentaries. This suggests to us that a continued move to new highs is just beginning. This will most likely be the final leg of this buy signal.

Our 770-780 target on the Russell 2000 looks entirely possible. As this would be around 5% from here, we could definitely see the possibility of the Russell 2000 breaking a few percent above our target, but probably not more.

The 2450-2500 target for the NASDAQ Composite would put the index less than 8% higher from here. If the S&P 500 returns around 6% before a top is put in, 8% is definitely possible for the NASDAQ, as we would expect the NASDAQ to outperform the S&P 500.

The final target we predicted was 46 for QQQQ. At this point, 46 seems too high. That would put the Qs higher by about 10% from here. Usually the NASDAQ 100 does outperform the NASDAQ Composite, and if the NASDAQ Composite moves 7-8% from here, we could definitely see the NASDAQ 100 moving 10%. Currently, we feel the target may be a little high. Regardless, for the bull market to stay intact, when the indices top, they cannot fall below the breakout point for the recent trendless market. For QQQQ, this is the 40 area. As long as the Qs top above 44, we can assume that it is possible for the subsequent fall to stay above 40. This would keep the bull market intact and this is important as some of our long-term investors do not short and nobody can short in their 401k, so buy signals always bring more money to subscribers of our system.

We feel it is important to keep our subscribers informed of potential targets and our current subjective view of the market, but in the end, our long-term timing system will tell us when to sell.

Take Care,

Stephen Brown
Founder of Nasdaq Wizard, LLC